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Jun 17, 2013
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it's been five years since the meltdown wreaked havoc on the global economy. they detail their thesis in the newest institutional investor magazine. next is your asia group president ian bremmer. thanks for being here. >> hi, marie a. glad to be here. >> take us through what you deem to be the new abnormal. >> first, asian markets are doing most of the growing at coming out of the financial crisis, and they are much more uncertain, much more volatile. we see that. whether we talk about turkey or brazil, you've got two governments you thought were doing really well just having the worst week of their careers. a lot of uncertainty across the merging market much more than in the united states or japan or even europe structurally in the last five years. and at the global level, the lack of leadership we continue to see, if anything, it's becoming more obvious, more in evidence at the g-8 right now, making it incredibly difficult to either have agreements on things like syria and the middle east which continues to become much more explosive along sectarian lines, o
it's been five years since the meltdown wreaked havoc on the global economy. they detail their thesis in the newest institutional investor magazine. next is your asia group president ian bremmer. thanks for being here. >> hi, marie a. glad to be here. >> take us through what you deem to be the new abnormal. >> first, asian markets are doing most of the growing at coming out of the financial crisis, and they are much more uncertain, much more volatile. we see that. whether we...
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Jun 18, 2013
06/13
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many, many developing economies where feminism has a role. thank you very much, diana. >> great to be with you. thanks for having me on. >> we're back right after this. my mantra? always go the extra mile. to treat my low testosterone, i did my research. my doctor and i went with axiron, the only underarm low t treatment. axiron can restore t levels to normal in about 2 weeks in most men. axiron is not for use in women or anyone younger than 18 or men with prostate or breast cancer. women, especially those who are or who may become pregnant and children should avoid contact where axiron is applied as unexpected signs of puberty in children or changes in body hair or increased acne in women may occur. report these symptoms to your doctor. tell your doctor about all medical conditions and medications. serious side effects could include increased risk of prostate cancer; worsening prostate symptoms; decreased sperm count; ankle, feet or body swelling; enlarged or painful breasts; problems breathing while sleeping; and blood clots in the legs. co
many, many developing economies where feminism has a role. thank you very much, diana. >> great to be with you. thanks for having me on. >> we're back right after this. my mantra? always go the extra mile. to treat my low testosterone, i did my research. my doctor and i went with axiron, the only underarm low t treatment. axiron can restore t levels to normal in about 2 weeks in most men. axiron is not for use in women or anyone younger than 18 or men with prostate or breast cancer....
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Jun 19, 2013
06/13
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if market does well when the economy does well. this is just a short-term thing of people addicted to sugar, get them off the sugar, they'll be fine. >> do you think job growth is strong enough? the last four reports, the average growth rate has been about 194,000 jobs. chairman bernanke was suggesting, you know, he's throwing out the caveat that we're talking about a timetable of starting the tapering later this year, assuming that that kind of job growth continues. do you think it will? >> i think, actually, he's doing better, if you look at the household survey, which means it's small businesses that may be more robust than we think. this whole premise that the federal reserve is helping the economy by doing what it's doing, i think needs to be closely re-examined. it's sent credit to things like fannie and freddie, from the federal government to big companies, but it also means that it's been a slow trickle of credit until recently, to smaller businesses, which are the real job creators in this economy. and you look at insuranc
if market does well when the economy does well. this is just a short-term thing of people addicted to sugar, get them off the sugar, they'll be fine. >> do you think job growth is strong enough? the last four reports, the average growth rate has been about 194,000 jobs. chairman bernanke was suggesting, you know, he's throwing out the caveat that we're talking about a timetable of starting the tapering later this year, assuming that that kind of job growth continues. do you think it will?...
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Jun 18, 2013
06/13
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we don't have the data strengthening the economy support we want or for the fed to walk away. finally, the fed said they would be committed and stick with the stimulus until we see the unemployment rate go under 6.5%. we're nowhere near. we actually upticked last month. that's why we think it's the lower end of the range, a buying opportunity in gold. >> so you think the fed is not going to back away, buy gold her. anthony, what kind of move to you think gold is going to make tomorrow in your view? >> jackie, i think it's completely wrong to buy gold her. this show is kaulgd futures and he's still looking at the past for decisions he's making on gold. the fed has been easing for a year and a half and gold has done nothing but drop. it's all about inflation, inflation according to that cpi number, jeff is right, doesn't exist at this point. it's even detached from the dollar which has shown weakness and gold is still lower right now. so i don't think it really matters what the fed does. if they continue their qe, it won't matter to gold. it's still going lower. if they decide t
we don't have the data strengthening the economy support we want or for the fed to walk away. finally, the fed said they would be committed and stick with the stimulus until we see the unemployment rate go under 6.5%. we're nowhere near. we actually upticked last month. that's why we think it's the lower end of the range, a buying opportunity in gold. >> so you think the fed is not going to back away, buy gold her. anthony, what kind of move to you think gold is going to make tomorrow in...
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Jun 19, 2013
06/13
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they are all coming down. >> no, i think the economy is fine. i mean, remember the amount of fiscal drag. look at real consumer spending, growing at about a 2% to 3% pace in the first half of the year. that's great if you're bringing the deficit down. we've got a lot of fiscal drag and the economy is dealing with that. i think we're seeing good numbers on housing. i think we're seeing good numbers on consumer spending. everything is not right in business or manufacturing, i get that, there's a lot of weakness in the world economy, but overall the economy is absorbing a huge amount of fiscal draug drag right now. i think it's powering through that, and i think it's actually got less to worry about.right n. i think it's powering through that, and i think it's actually got less to worry about. >> it's a very big footprint. >> something that's very important to remember. >> just to reiterate, there's no explicit indication from the fed that it's close to scaling back its bond-buying program. bob pisani, the markets have been moving lower on this. cu
they are all coming down. >> no, i think the economy is fine. i mean, remember the amount of fiscal drag. look at real consumer spending, growing at about a 2% to 3% pace in the first half of the year. that's great if you're bringing the deficit down. we've got a lot of fiscal drag and the economy is dealing with that. i think we're seeing good numbers on housing. i think we're seeing good numbers on consumer spending. everything is not right in business or manufacturing, i get that,...
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Jun 18, 2013
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economy would not only be a stall on the u.s. economy as we see the policies set be i the fed are being imitated this is what draggy has been doing in europe and in japan. i many own sense is that for a short period of time, probably another two or three quarters. it's important for america to continue to provide the leadership that will allow a global recovery to occur. then we do have to get on with the business of solving structural issues. i don't think it will be easier to solve structural issues if we find ourselves back in the state in the recovery we currently have is going to be questioned. >> i think that's right nevada the confidence fa we node to keep if economy going seems to be correlated to the market's perception of what the fed is doing. and maybe we're surprised by that a little bit because the fundamentals shouldn't be so checked. but the pact is, they are. the psychology, the canesian animal spirits, if you will, seem to be realed to the market's reactions to where the fed is on the issue. and i think what you
economy would not only be a stall on the u.s. economy as we see the policies set be i the fed are being imitated this is what draggy has been doing in europe and in japan. i many own sense is that for a short period of time, probably another two or three quarters. it's important for america to continue to provide the leadership that will allow a global recovery to occur. then we do have to get on with the business of solving structural issues. i don't think it will be easier to solve structural...
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Jun 19, 2013
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what's your outlook on the american economy right now? >> i think we've not only seen stability in it, but i think sort of a brightening horizon, full. i think people are feeling more optimistic in it. i think it's, you know, harder if you get down into the blue collar part of it. i talk with our friends at walmart. i think they still see stress, you know, in -- in the economy in many of their customers. as you move up the economic scale, i think, you know, which is what leads -- tends to lead the economy, i think you see optimism. >> you've been a big supporter of president obama over the years. tod today is, of course, fed day. do you think president obama should keep ben bernanke around? >> you've gone beyond my pay grade. obviously we've had eight years of incredible leadership from him, and i think he's done a pretty remarkable job, put a very steady hand, to you know, over an economy that's had a very challenging period of time, and that's pretty historical in that regard so i'm not sure what the right answer is to that, but i think
what's your outlook on the american economy right now? >> i think we've not only seen stability in it, but i think sort of a brightening horizon, full. i think people are feeling more optimistic in it. i think it's, you know, harder if you get down into the blue collar part of it. i talk with our friends at walmart. i think they still see stress, you know, in -- in the economy in many of their customers. as you move up the economic scale, i think, you know, which is what leads -- tends to...
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Jun 20, 2013
06/13
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that the economy is stronger. and that it is a lack of confidence in the economy's ability a to stand on its two feet without all of this liquidity. >> and do you think this is old-fashioned profit taking? we've had good gains for 2013. we've had good gains for last four years. is it time to take something off the table for that reason. >> think i so. and a couple dayes with twloost days of run up with the announcement yesterday was short-covering. so i think you have people on the shore wagon as well. i think it is a combination of profits and the move down today. >> have you a triple witch tomorrow right? expiration coming tomorrow. how does that impact things? >> i think that exaggerates the moods. usually you see a lot of activity and volume and movement. and what we have seen the last few days is a heavy down days. i think the on coming combination exaggerate the move and puts pressure in that direction of the movement in this case down and exaggerate this move. not quite a bit but, significantly amount today
that the economy is stronger. and that it is a lack of confidence in the economy's ability a to stand on its two feet without all of this liquidity. >> and do you think this is old-fashioned profit taking? we've had good gains for 2013. we've had good gains for last four years. is it time to take something off the table for that reason. >> think i so. and a couple dayes with twloost days of run up with the announcement yesterday was short-covering. so i think you have people on the...
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Jun 20, 2013
06/13
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in fact, i think the economy -- the real economy where we spend our time is actually many a little stronger than the numbers show and, again, we talk about a few minutes ago housing is really important. housing has led every recovery to participate in a big way. even bigger than the numbers. housing punches its way because it affects people's attitude. also, ag is doing relatively well. energy. who would have guessed that we would be potentially -- >> peak oil, the whole notion of it, the notion of peak oil, you have 1,000 year's worth now if you take china's reserve and everyone's reserve. >> we have not hit peak hydrocarbon. >> what we know today, we think we have 100 years or so in the u.s. what we might know 20 years from now could be 500. >> the way the information is going, i'm looking at all of this. when computers start designing themselves and everything else, we're going to move on to something else. you didn't run out of stones. >> the key is, we have now figured how to extract it from different types of things. >> right. >> we know there's more energy in the things we can't get
in fact, i think the economy -- the real economy where we spend our time is actually many a little stronger than the numbers show and, again, we talk about a few minutes ago housing is really important. housing has led every recovery to participate in a big way. even bigger than the numbers. housing punches its way because it affects people's attitude. also, ag is doing relatively well. energy. who would have guessed that we would be potentially -- >> peak oil, the whole notion of it, the...
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Jun 20, 2013
06/13
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zee an economy going through withdrawal and some of the economy and it's not a lot of it was addicted to this cheap money. the reality is i like what the fed chairman did. he came out with this when the market was near its top. had he done that when the market was down 200 s&p point from here it might be a different story, but i like the fact that he's let a little of this fluff come off, and i'm a buyer of this break and with the withdrawal comes and aren't you supposed to have some positive feeling before you hit withdrawals? >> it's not only that. it's the policy itself that i'm objecting to. >> katie, welcome to the show. you've got to jump in. this is a rough crowd. you've got to jump in. i'd like it hear your take on today's market on the inerds of this market including gold which got slaughtered today and only the dollar held up nicely. what did you learn from looking inside the market whether it's trading volume or sectors in the s&p. what did you learn? >> a lot of things from today, in fact. it was a very important day in a lot of levels and volume was one thing that bears p
zee an economy going through withdrawal and some of the economy and it's not a lot of it was addicted to this cheap money. the reality is i like what the fed chairman did. he came out with this when the market was near its top. had he done that when the market was down 200 s&p point from here it might be a different story, but i like the fact that he's let a little of this fluff come off, and i'm a buyer of this break and with the withdrawal comes and aren't you supposed to have some...
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Jun 19, 2013
06/13
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is it a recognition the economy might be better than we think? are we starting to work in the taper? why are rates going up? >> rates aren't going up, scott. they're sideways. they went up earlier and they went up to about 2.30% on the ten-year which we talked about a few weeks ago and since then they're just bouncing around. rates really aren't rising. they're going sideways, and i think actually rates are going to start falling. i think the place, the one place that you're likely to make money in the next several weeks, maybe couple of months, is actually, believe it or not, the most hated asset class on the planet, long-term u.s. government bonds. that's what i think is going to be the most successful investment, and looking at to the reach that conclusion is the fact that there is no inflation anywhere. there's no sign of inflation. when you look at the commodity market in particular, it really looks bad. i mean, look at where copper is. look at where gold is. look at where gold is in foreign currencies. i mean, it's hitting new lows in terms
is it a recognition the economy might be better than we think? are we starting to work in the taper? why are rates going up? >> rates aren't going up, scott. they're sideways. they went up earlier and they went up to about 2.30% on the ten-year which we talked about a few weeks ago and since then they're just bouncing around. rates really aren't rising. they're going sideways, and i think actually rates are going to start falling. i think the place, the one place that you're likely to...
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Jun 18, 2013
06/13
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do we see a better economy? or do we see the sequester take some oompf out of the economy in. >> there are two significant issues. number one, earnings have been good, but revenue growth is slowing. economic data is mixed. again, we have some manipulation in the economic numbers based on moving the fed's balance sheet from 500 billion to 3.4 trillion. i also think we have to be cognizant of the fact that investors still have not gained full confidence. they're still weary, they're still concerned. just take a look at a 10% drop in gold one day, or 8% drop in japan, which followed through to a total of 20% loss, and it shows you the first sign that investors get that things are not as good as expectations, or that there will be any type of pullback in the liquidity run, they'll go running for the hills. i'm not saying run out of equity. we love equity long term. there's too many ways to be -- too many reasons to be bullish on equity. but my point is second half stay disciplined. don't let those equity bounces in
do we see a better economy? or do we see the sequester take some oompf out of the economy in. >> there are two significant issues. number one, earnings have been good, but revenue growth is slowing. economic data is mixed. again, we have some manipulation in the economic numbers based on moving the fed's balance sheet from 500 billion to 3.4 trillion. i also think we have to be cognizant of the fact that investors still have not gained full confidence. they're still weary, they're still...
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Jun 15, 2013
06/13
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>> encore cost nearly $2.3 billion, a risky bet in a bad economy. why, in this economic environment, would you open a hotel? >> well, i'll tell you right now that if i had any idea this-- i wouldn't, if i had a choice, but this project was started four years ago. these things have a huge lead time. >> the gambling industry has been battered by the recession and taken the city of las vegas down with it. some casinos stand half built. unemployment is over 10%. and while steve wynn has had to slash employees' pay and lower room prices, he plows ahead, doing whatever it takes to get customers to his new hotel. >> this is encore. [dramatic orchestral music] ♪ >> and, yes, he really was sitting on top of the building. >> next time, we do this in the lobby. >> the encore is connected to his other las vegas hotel, the wynn, and he has a third in macau, china. inside, his hotels are fantasy lands for well-heeled adults. he brought gourmet restaurants and high-end shopping to the strip. his hotels may be extravagant, but his business strategy is conservativ
>> encore cost nearly $2.3 billion, a risky bet in a bad economy. why, in this economic environment, would you open a hotel? >> well, i'll tell you right now that if i had any idea this-- i wouldn't, if i had a choice, but this project was started four years ago. these things have a huge lead time. >> the gambling industry has been battered by the recession and taken the city of las vegas down with it. some casinos stand half built. unemployment is over 10%. and while steve...
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Jun 20, 2013
06/13
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economy and to cisco? >> i think this is where the fed deserves a lot of credit in the last couple of years. we haven't done things with deficit spending and repatriation to stimulate the economy. the fed used all of the skills that they had. so you've got a track record of calling it right. if they believe it's time to slowly taper back a little bit, the main thing is the economy is in better shape. >> it's not tapering that you want, you want tax reform in the united states. you want to get that money which you have to hold off shore for u.s. jobs, yes? >> the u.s. tax system is broken. we've waited for years for it to come back. we're assuming that's not going to happen. we don't think that it's going to happen. that's why you see me traveling throughout asia pacific, throughout europe and you've seen the majority of our acquisitions in the past year in terms of the big ones, at least half over seas. >> you can't repay the try eight the $47 billion? >> i can't repay the try eight the $47 billion. i'm on
economy and to cisco? >> i think this is where the fed deserves a lot of credit in the last couple of years. we haven't done things with deficit spending and repatriation to stimulate the economy. the fed used all of the skills that they had. so you've got a track record of calling it right. if they believe it's time to slowly taper back a little bit, the main thing is the economy is in better shape. >> it's not tapering that you want, you want tax reform in the united states. you...
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Jun 17, 2013
06/13
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if they are looking through rose-colored glasses and thinking that the economy is in fact better off than it actually is and they make a policy decision as a result of the shaded view of what the real picture is, that's a problem. that's why i asked the question, that's all. >> i think the fed is in or around the market for the second half of the year. there's expected to be an acceleration. another thing we didn't talk about is the market's view and the fed's view about the impact of sequester. think so far the market has been re-evaluating that and expecting a little bit more growth and i think it's right to think that fed policy was oriented somewhat towards offsetting the sequester effects and to the extent that that's less it would make an argument for less qe in the months eye head when that becomes clear. >> good stuff as always, good to talk to you. >> steve liesman back at headquarters. >>> volatility has ruled the day lately. if our next guest is right, better get used to it. steven whiting is chief investment strategist for city wide bank. where do you weigh in on what hap
if they are looking through rose-colored glasses and thinking that the economy is in fact better off than it actually is and they make a policy decision as a result of the shaded view of what the real picture is, that's a problem. that's why i asked the question, that's all. >> i think the fed is in or around the market for the second half of the year. there's expected to be an acceleration. another thing we didn't talk about is the market's view and the fed's view about the impact of...
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Jun 20, 2013
06/13
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fo .4 of a percent is still way over the growth of economy. this is still a very unattractive rate on treasury securities here. >> of course, it is. but where is it historically? >> dividends are increasing 10 to 15% a year with yields that are now 2, 2.5%. i think that's a winning combination. >> schree? >> i would say in ten years it looks like a significant point to change right now. i look in the sharp term to have a deflation. that's what you're getting in terms of prices. so a 2.4% yield on the ten-year is an extremely attractive yield to go into. and so it doesn't become unattractive until you're well below 2%, so i would say the time to switch is today. >> can i just end this really quickly on a completely different topic, but it does tie into monetary policy. schree, i believe for the first time ever and now on national tv, you have switched and you're now a buyer. >> i am now a buyer. i accept from 2011, i said don't buy gold before it goes to 1300. again, it was a lonely call. there was nobody going with it. but now that we have gon
fo .4 of a percent is still way over the growth of economy. this is still a very unattractive rate on treasury securities here. >> of course, it is. but where is it historically? >> dividends are increasing 10 to 15% a year with yields that are now 2, 2.5%. i think that's a winning combination. >> schree? >> i would say in ten years it looks like a significant point to change right now. i look in the sharp term to have a deflation. that's what you're getting in terms of...
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Jun 18, 2013
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our economy and our democracy. so i'm not the least bit surprised. i'm pleased that in this case, which is an older case, that it was solved efficiently. >> mr. kallstrom, you say that you believe that trust has been promised for the american people. what should the response be? how do you regain that trust? how do we set the system straight? >> by having people that pontificate on television tell the truth. if they can't tell the truth for reasons of classification, then they say so. but, you know, i'm not saying that the ends justify the means in any case, even if the trust of the government was 90%, which it never will be, but it clearly doesn't help to have all these things going on about benghazi and the irs and all these other things. you know, it costs a crooked eye to the whole government. it's going to be difficult to maintain these types of systems -- >> so what -- forgive me. i don't mean to interrupt. you have a problem probably with the line here. what is the truth that you believe is not being said in public that needs to be said? >> yo
our economy and our democracy. so i'm not the least bit surprised. i'm pleased that in this case, which is an older case, that it was solved efficiently. >> mr. kallstrom, you say that you believe that trust has been promised for the american people. what should the response be? how do you regain that trust? how do we set the system straight? >> by having people that pontificate on television tell the truth. if they can't tell the truth for reasons of classification, then they say...
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Jun 19, 2013
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economy? where is it? >> the fed has been above consensus of everybody in where the economy is. >> but where is the strength? i feel better against europe and china. >> and oil and gas. >> and the unemployment numbers from those districts are amazing. >> and the housing and the ripple effect that you have pointed out from housing many times. >> and nordstroms. >> and autos doing pretty well. >> restoration hardware. and housing, we could use 2 million homes. you are right. you are right. i'm saying that if you are the fed and say 6.5% unemployment, we are not there. >> we are not there yet. but we may be getting there. taking a look at the futures. >> well, quickly, the banks, jim, that you said are the most impornt sector to keep an eye on, and they are lower this morning by a half percent. >>le with, people are not buying my rap on that stuff. banks are too high, and this guy who is a pop-off jamie dimon said that the rates he will do $2 billion more with the higher rates, but who is he? who
economy? where is it? >> the fed has been above consensus of everybody in where the economy is. >> but where is the strength? i feel better against europe and china. >> and oil and gas. >> and the unemployment numbers from those districts are amazing. >> and the housing and the ripple effect that you have pointed out from housing many times. >> and nordstroms. >> and autos doing pretty well. >> restoration hardware. and housing, we could use 2...
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Jun 21, 2013
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the economy is getting better. but i think you have to slowly put your money that you have on the sidelines into cash. yesterday money only went to cash. you know, the commodity complex sold off. the bonds sold off. equities sold off. emerging markets got hammered. i think there's more dry powder on the sidelines. i think we just have to see if certain levels hold. but we're still very constructive going forward with a 1650 to 1700 s&p target. the problem is this. when volatility increases, anxiety increases. and investors seek certitude. the fed did not give us full certitude because they were talking one thing while the market was bringing rates up ahead of them. i think it's something we have to watch and just be flexible right now. >> you bring up an interesting point. the algorithms and the computerized trading. we've talked, you know, we were yus talking about someone else who was mentioned in morning money. i know that's something ron baron mentioned. doug cass was just talking about that. how big of a probl
the economy is getting better. but i think you have to slowly put your money that you have on the sidelines into cash. yesterday money only went to cash. you know, the commodity complex sold off. the bonds sold off. equities sold off. emerging markets got hammered. i think there's more dry powder on the sidelines. i think we just have to see if certain levels hold. but we're still very constructive going forward with a 1650 to 1700 s&p target. the problem is this. when volatility increases,...
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Jun 21, 2013
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they are more credit sensitive, and steve just mentioned, hey, we think that the economy is going to continue to go along quite well. you're not going to have bankruptcies in high yield and even slow growth will alol two companies to continue to chug along pay a much higher interest rate now than what they were a couple of weeks ago, and it really represents, we think, probably the best value out there in fixed income. >> we're making this a very actionable friday, okay, so our viewers, maybe they believe, what do i do? i can't go out and buy a double p-minus corporate credit? what's the easiest way for the audience to play what you're saying? >> certainly can you go to a managed high-yield fund and go to an etf and our concerns with an etf, being an adviser and manager, is you can't really distinguish good bonds from bad bonds and there are good bonds out there in junk land so find an adviser you can trust who has a fund that's well diversified in high yield. play there. >> meantime, steve, you've been telling everybody out there to sell every single bond they have. >> right. i mean
they are more credit sensitive, and steve just mentioned, hey, we think that the economy is going to continue to go along quite well. you're not going to have bankruptcies in high yield and even slow growth will alol two companies to continue to chug along pay a much higher interest rate now than what they were a couple of weeks ago, and it really represents, we think, probably the best value out there in fixed income. >> we're making this a very actionable friday, okay, so our viewers,...
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Jun 17, 2013
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the economy is kind of stuck on credit right now. >> rates are already rising. stock traders are saying look at the bond market. they're responding to this as well right now. >> that's the indigestion, i think. you couldn't just say, rates are here, they're going to base stock market value certainties off this that rates are going up. i don't think it's really the likelihood, but i do think you have at least enough doubt with stocks having done what they've done year to date, you don't have a lot of room for error there. >> bob, what do you think the feds will say on wednesday? you have to have anticipation if you're putting money in this market. >> i think the fed is going to stay with the message they've been saying since the start of the year, which is we will taper when we've seen a financial improvement in the labor market. and then they'll leave up to the labor market to determine what is substantial. >> i think they also don't want people to interpret tapering as no more help. that's been the nuance. >> tapering means lower numbers. not necessarily 85 bil
the economy is kind of stuck on credit right now. >> rates are already rising. stock traders are saying look at the bond market. they're responding to this as well right now. >> that's the indigestion, i think. you couldn't just say, rates are here, they're going to base stock market value certainties off this that rates are going up. i don't think it's really the likelihood, but i do think you have at least enough doubt with stocks having done what they've done year to date, you...
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Jun 19, 2013
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i see a lot more softness in the economy. if i go back and read the beige book, i didn't everybody see the word robust ever. so i don't think that we'll be looking at a change in fed stance for the rest of this year. >> cody, too, from honeywell when he was on here, he was like, no, i don't see anything. so that's not even high tech stuff necessarily. julia, where are you on this? >> i think that they will try to continue to socialize the idea of adjusting the pace of purchases. i think that it's something that the committee wants to do. the committee is getting nervous with never ending qe at the same pace and then ever expanding balance sheet. there are many on the committee that do see progress, particularly in the labor market. and i think that's the key. we do need to get a better sense of what they're looking for in the labor market, number one. do we have to see hiring get even better than it's been. or just more of the same for a longer period good enough to take a step back. remember, to them, tapering is not a tight
i see a lot more softness in the economy. if i go back and read the beige book, i didn't everybody see the word robust ever. so i don't think that we'll be looking at a change in fed stance for the rest of this year. >> cody, too, from honeywell when he was on here, he was like, no, i don't see anything. so that's not even high tech stuff necessarily. julia, where are you on this? >> i think that they will try to continue to socialize the idea of adjusting the pace of purchases. i...
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Jun 17, 2013
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the economy. not market, but overall economy. why do you think they need to stay around for so long? >> well, i don't think they do. i just think they will. i think if you look at how they've been talking lately and how they've changed their tone, they're talking a little more about i inflation, another reason to keep providing stimulus. i don't think that's by accident. i'd also say that i think a lot of what you're hearing out of the fed is really just designed to increase uncertainty in the near term because what they don't really -- what they can't let happen is for the markets to price in the end game. they can't let the market price in when tapering ends. they don't care if people know when it begins. if people know when tapering ends, they can figure out the pathway and all the smart people i work with can price that the second after it happens. it will be too disruptive. >> that's why the market is even reacting to the idea that tapering is going to come at some point. it used to be that you'd react to the change in inter
the economy. not market, but overall economy. why do you think they need to stay around for so long? >> well, i don't think they do. i just think they will. i think if you look at how they've been talking lately and how they've changed their tone, they're talking a little more about i inflation, another reason to keep providing stimulus. i don't think that's by accident. i'd also say that i think a lot of what you're hearing out of the fed is really just designed to increase uncertainty...
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Jun 20, 2013
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economy. >> which is now the critical question, with the rates going up, what is the impact on mortgage rates? and cramer tweeting watch the t etf that tracks the real estate, the ytr, and there is a shift that people are going to be looking at investing in the market, and the builders and the reits and the utilities and the tell co telecomes and other stocks fallen out of favor. >> and there's jim's tweet. he is not here, but here in spirit. my theory is that the fed is simply trying to make the bond market's slide more orderly so mortgage rates don't go to 5% in straight line. >> the fact of the increase in mortgage rates has not come out of the off increase in the 10-year, but because the mortgage investors need clarity from the fed and important to watch the spread between the 30-year mortgage and the 10-year treasury, because if it is not compressive, the fed has to worry about that as well. yesterday they said they are not going sell mortgages out of the port fo portfolios which is a cha
economy. >> which is now the critical question, with the rates going up, what is the impact on mortgage rates? and cramer tweeting watch the t etf that tracks the real estate, the ytr, and there is a shift that people are going to be looking at investing in the market, and the builders and the reits and the utilities and the tell co telecomes and other stocks fallen out of favor. >> and there's jim's tweet. he is not here, but here in spirit. my theory is that the fed is simply...
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Jun 20, 2013
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economy, housing around energy, but overall the economy is very unlikely to grow at 5% or 5.5% knowledge nal which is what the fed is forecasting and, therefore, the degree to which the market is pricing in tapering is unlikely to materialize. these rates actually will probably stabilize and head lower towards the end of the year. granted, we're seeing a lot of unwinding and a lot of volatility, but these markets should stabilize over time and this will prove to be an attractive buying opportunity. >> hold on one second, simon. jeff gundlach was on our show yesterday who said treasuries were set to rally fairly quickly, that you're sort of in this scenario of really nowhere to make any money these days just given what's happening. >> yeah. if you look at our investment grade high quality corporate bond portfolios today as of this morning, they're yielding 4.25% to 6% for long maturity high quality corporate bonds. that's going to attract from our clients globally. you will see buyers gradually step in and obviously bernanke and what the fed's predicament is in has created a lot of volati
economy, housing around energy, but overall the economy is very unlikely to grow at 5% or 5.5% knowledge nal which is what the fed is forecasting and, therefore, the degree to which the market is pricing in tapering is unlikely to materialize. these rates actually will probably stabilize and head lower towards the end of the year. granted, we're seeing a lot of unwinding and a lot of volatility, but these markets should stabilize over time and this will prove to be an attractive buying...
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Jun 21, 2013
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that's indicative of a better economy, a faster growing recovery happening. if rates back up very severely like we have been seeing over the last month, that's problematic in my view. that's volatility in my view. but overall the bond market needs to stabilize. when that happens i think the markets will and we can focus on earnings. if the economy continues to recover, corporate profits will recover mikofecover miking the attractive. defensives have been hammered again. you have to keep an eye out for some of these quality companies. those are on the radar screen. we're too early. >> jeffrey gundlach was on the show and said he didn't expect to hit 2.r50% on the ten-year note, today it did. gundlach e-mailing me when i asked him why are we seeing such a violent move. higher yields leads to fear-based selling leads to the street stepping back leads to fear-based selling and around and around it goes. doc, is this the way it's going to be for a while? >> it is in a way. but i agree with stephanie and stephen and jeff gundlach, who when he said it here on our sh
that's indicative of a better economy, a faster growing recovery happening. if rates back up very severely like we have been seeing over the last month, that's problematic in my view. that's volatility in my view. but overall the bond market needs to stabilize. when that happens i think the markets will and we can focus on earnings. if the economy continues to recover, corporate profits will recover mikofecover miking the attractive. defensives have been hammered again. you have to keep an eye...
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Jun 17, 2013
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troops over there, so when does that mess over there start forcing gasoline prices higher and maybe the economy, not just here, but globally lower? sue is at the new york stock exchange. hi, sue. >> hi, ty. food to see you. when a monday on wall street to start out week. the dow has been on the move, smartly higher. right now a triple-digit advance on the dow right now of 166 points. the s&p and nasdaq also in green territory with the s&p up just better than 1%, and the nasdaq is up 1.25%, so actually the nasdaq is faring the west of the three indices 3-m, delphi a hitting all-time highs and boeing, staples, amat hitting 52-week highs. the dow having a triple-digit move, but this is the fifth straight move th session where we've seen that kind of move. a look at the vix and we'll talk about that in just a second. the last week it was up 8%, and that brings us to bob pisani who also tracks the volatility. >> we do, and while it's been up since may 22nd when mr. bernanke gave his congressional testimony, the important thing is steady as she goes. the last few days, real found a floor. look at the
troops over there, so when does that mess over there start forcing gasoline prices higher and maybe the economy, not just here, but globally lower? sue is at the new york stock exchange. hi, sue. >> hi, ty. food to see you. when a monday on wall street to start out week. the dow has been on the move, smartly higher. right now a triple-digit advance on the dow right now of 166 points. the s&p and nasdaq also in green territory with the s&p up just better than 1%, and the nasdaq is...
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Jun 18, 2013
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one of the biggest problems in the economy, interesting changes here. used to be concerned about too little deficit reduction. that back in april. that's fallen off. not a whole lot of concern about deflation or overall inflation and a little bit more concern about too much deficit reduction, that the sequester is hitting the economy in a bad way, but those aren't on the top. let's go to the next one to look at the top, the next graphic, there we go. the european financial crisis falling off, slow job growth and tax and regulatory policies the two maintaining the top spot for the second month in a row. let's see some of the other ones, 11% sluggish overseas growth, overall uncertainty. asset price bubbles and declines. slow income growth, slow overall growth, and then there's negative economic commentary by the press. thought i'd throw that in there. someone did mention that. as for the overall economic outlook, really unchanged since the april survey. looking for 2.1% year over year and accelerating to 2.6% next year. tyler, not a lot of concern about
one of the biggest problems in the economy, interesting changes here. used to be concerned about too little deficit reduction. that back in april. that's fallen off. not a whole lot of concern about deflation or overall inflation and a little bit more concern about too much deficit reduction, that the sequester is hitting the economy in a bad way, but those aren't on the top. let's go to the next one to look at the top, the next graphic, there we go. the european financial crisis falling off,...
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Jun 18, 2013
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economy. it's growing at 2%. it's going to accelerate as consumer confidence rises with rising housing prices. we'll see 3, 4, 5% growth rate. >> 3, 4, 5%, those are big numbers. you had an okay housing number today but housing starts are up 29% on year. here's my inflation point. the year-to-year cpi, 1.4%. guys like me two years ago worry about inflation, money printing, i was wrong. i said that before. the best set indicator, 1.0%. without inflation, why should inflation rates have to go higher? >> they go a little bit higher, but the key is our tremendous productivity in this country. even if you get labor costs up 1 or 2%, there will be no increase in unit labor costs if you get 3% productivity growth which i think is reasonable given our experience. we've got years of growth ahead of us. these are the years where the environment, where it can look ahead several years and see continued significant growth. just exactly how fast it grows is going to grow is not the problem, particularly whe
economy. it's growing at 2%. it's going to accelerate as consumer confidence rises with rising housing prices. we'll see 3, 4, 5% growth rate. >> 3, 4, 5%, those are big numbers. you had an okay housing number today but housing starts are up 29% on year. here's my inflation point. the year-to-year cpi, 1.4%. guys like me two years ago worry about inflation, money printing, i was wrong. i said that before. the best set indicator, 1.0%. without inflation, why should inflation rates have to...
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Jun 18, 2013
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you know, it's still an economy full employment. we wish a lot of the european economies would have that situation. i find it difficult to find good talent at a reasonable price there. we have a team in brazil, 15 analysts there, and it's just an antidotal evidence, but it is proven to point. >> marfrig, what do they do? >> marfrig is a meat producer, one of the largest meat producers in brazil, and cernig is a utility company. >> okay. why do those two -- >> well, marfrig enjoys from the fact we're the commodity cycle, brazil is one of the lowest cost producers in beef. so, in a scenario where foods demand is still on the rise, we think they're going to do very, very well. we think that the balance sheet issues are going to be overcome. so, it's a restructuring story as well. on the cemig side, utilities in brazil have suffered quite a bit from the utility bill and the tariff provisions. what we're saying here is going forward, that's already in the price, so going forward, the outlook looks good. >> cemig, as we come back to talk
you know, it's still an economy full employment. we wish a lot of the european economies would have that situation. i find it difficult to find good talent at a reasonable price there. we have a team in brazil, 15 analysts there, and it's just an antidotal evidence, but it is proven to point. >> marfrig, what do they do? >> marfrig is a meat producer, one of the largest meat producers in brazil, and cernig is a utility company. >> okay. why do those two -- >> well,...
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Jun 18, 2013
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broader economy, and their own country or the world. my question for janet is, the surprising thing to me about this report is that north america and the developed countries are actually back on top when it comes to wealth creation. if you look at china, you look at brazil, russia, the developing, emerging markets, which are supposed to be the new thing when it came to the world of wealth, and they're really secondary now. did we all get too bullish when it came to wealth creation in emerging markets? >> i think we're looking at short-term patterns here. the belief is when we look at asia-pacific, some of the developing economies, they will probably be back on top in the near term. particularly asia-pacific, which we think will have the fastest growth rate to 2015 where we think world wealth will be -- find net worth over 55 trillion. think about the volatility in the marks. in 2010, 2011, and think about what the u.s. markets did and, quite frankly, u.s. real estate. so it's really not a surprise. we flip-flopped a little bit in 2012 w
broader economy, and their own country or the world. my question for janet is, the surprising thing to me about this report is that north america and the developed countries are actually back on top when it comes to wealth creation. if you look at china, you look at brazil, russia, the developing, emerging markets, which are supposed to be the new thing when it came to the world of wealth, and they're really secondary now. did we all get too bullish when it came to wealth creation in emerging...
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Jun 21, 2013
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is the economy strong enough? is the economy around the world strong enough to support the market at this level if they're going to pull support away. >> i think what he's trying to say is the economy he hopes will be strong enough. they're not pulling the rug out right now. they've made it clear they're extremely data dependent. i think they're expecting the economy to be strong enough, and i think they're expecting that when it is, they will start to pull back. to be clear, you know, you made a comment earlier about are we ahead of ourselves from a fundamental perspective? i think the market is very forward looking, right? so the point there is i think the market is looking ahead six months and saying, we're going to be in a very different place -- >> hang on, hang on. i understand that point, but i don't think that's where we are because we were artificially inflated by the fed, and the assumption was that the fundamentals would come up to support us, and, therefore, it's not a normal situation. what we're sayi
is the economy strong enough? is the economy around the world strong enough to support the market at this level if they're going to pull support away. >> i think what he's trying to say is the economy he hopes will be strong enough. they're not pulling the rug out right now. they've made it clear they're extremely data dependent. i think they're expecting the economy to be strong enough, and i think they're expecting that when it is, they will start to pull back. to be clear, you know,...
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Jun 21, 2013
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i think it needs to broaden the economy. that's very, very difficult for brazil at the moment. >> i mean, it does -- all roads lead to china. this is where, you know, this liquidity story, the timing of the pboc decision to try and teach the bank and the financial system a lesson is -- is really unfortunate. because, as you were saying earlier, it's really bad timing coming at the same point as we're trying to come to terms with this -- or accurately price the prospect of fed tapering. and, you know, this does pose quite a growth risk going into the second half for china, i think. >> what is the -- what is this -- 7% growth rates from 9%. they're trying to rein in the credit in the secondary banking system, chris. how is that going to spill out into asian -- asian emerging markets? >> it's going to be -- it's going to be quite powerfully negative, i think. and i think the other thing as proliferation countries are dealing with is the yen. essentially japan is exporting deflation. they may be trying to create inflation in the
i think it needs to broaden the economy. that's very, very difficult for brazil at the moment. >> i mean, it does -- all roads lead to china. this is where, you know, this liquidity story, the timing of the pboc decision to try and teach the bank and the financial system a lesson is -- is really unfortunate. because, as you were saying earlier, it's really bad timing coming at the same point as we're trying to come to terms with this -- or accurately price the prospect of fed tapering....
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Jun 21, 2013
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economy, is only growing at 1.5%, so valuations are here. the economy and growth is here. and you're going to have to go through that corrective phase. we would recommend that investors continue to move up the quality spectrum as well as move down their duration and buy shorter-term maturities on their bonds. >> you got killed if were you in bonds this week. >> completely destroyed. >> and $38 billion of money coming out of bond funds. >> got completely destroyed. if the expectations are correct with the federal reserve -- which i don't agree with -- then you could see the 10-year move to a 3.5 handle over the course of the next several months. and that, indeed, is why the fear trade is starting to kick in. >> 30 seconds. best stock idea. >> best is triumph group, an aerospace parts company. we have price target there of $90 a share. >> the quality curve. >> quality inspection. >> johnson & johnson, and i'm giving you back 27 seconds. >> you won't tell us why. just -- >> johnson & johnson. international growth. great yield. 3.3%. if you want other drug stocks, abbott and m
economy, is only growing at 1.5%, so valuations are here. the economy and growth is here. and you're going to have to go through that corrective phase. we would recommend that investors continue to move up the quality spectrum as well as move down their duration and buy shorter-term maturities on their bonds. >> you got killed if were you in bonds this week. >> completely destroyed. >> and $38 billion of money coming out of bond funds. >> got completely destroyed. if the...
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Jun 17, 2013
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a year as much as 10 billion pounds in the uk economy. there are some concerns that the french might scoff at this because they want exceptionalism for their enterprises. elsewhere, some form of deal on tax evasion could be on the agenda. they're trying to get companies and individuals globally to have some sort of register of interest which will cut down on that avoidance and evasion well. shinzo abe in town explaining once again how japanese abenomic policies are aimed at the domestic economy and not destabilizing global currency markets, although it is noticeable ahead of this meeting there's been less rhetoric against the japanese than there was ahead of the recent g-20 which i attended in moscow. it's all to play for still here over the next 48 hours, ross. back to you. >> all right. that's steve with the latest from northern ireland. >>> u.s. markets after being down three out of the last four weeks called higher this morning at the hope as far as futures are concerned. the s&p 500 currently around 40 points. the nasdaq is about 31
a year as much as 10 billion pounds in the uk economy. there are some concerns that the french might scoff at this because they want exceptionalism for their enterprises. elsewhere, some form of deal on tax evasion could be on the agenda. they're trying to get companies and individuals globally to have some sort of register of interest which will cut down on that avoidance and evasion well. shinzo abe in town explaining once again how japanese abenomic policies are aimed at the domestic economy...
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Jun 17, 2013
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on the economy for example. so the "new york times" ran a piece over the weekend, they were basically saying the new normal of sluggish growth now over and we should get much more optimistic about the economy. and then you hear today that the fed is possibly going to down grade its own estimates this week at the meeting and that will become the main focus. >> with all due respect to the people who work at the fed, they are notorious for faulty estimates, if you would. and so you can't have it there but there is an old anecdote about somebody helping plan d day invasion and he was a meteorologist and he kept say i don't go want to give you anymore reports because i think it's no better than a 50/50 shot and the general said send it in any way, we need it for planning. so even though something is inferior, people keep looking to it. >> and just briefly, i know in the last couple weeks we've been trading off different things. first it was what was happening in japan and the yen, then what was happening here in the
on the economy for example. so the "new york times" ran a piece over the weekend, they were basically saying the new normal of sluggish growth now over and we should get much more optimistic about the economy. and then you hear today that the fed is possibly going to down grade its own estimates this week at the meeting and that will become the main focus. >> with all due respect to the people who work at the fed, they are notorious for faulty estimates, if you would. and so you...
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Jun 19, 2013
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i'll worry about the economy more than a few times before they're grown. but it's for them, so i've found a way. who matters most to you says the most about you. at massmutual we're owned by our policyowners, and they matter most to us. ready to plan for your future? we'll help you get there. hey kevin...still eating chalk for heartburn? yeah... try new alka seltzer fruit chews. they work fast on heartburn and taste awesome. these are good. told ya! i'm feeling better already. [ male announcer ] new alka seltzer fruits chews. enjoy the relief! [ male announcer ] new alka seltzer fruits chews. uh-oguess what day it is!is?? huh...anybody? julie! hey...guess what day it is?? ah come on, i know you can hear me. mike mike mike mike mike... what day is it mike? ha ha ha ha ha ha! leslie, guess what today is? it's hump day. whoot whoot! ronny, how happy are folks who save hundreds of dollars switching to geico? i'd say happier than a camel on wednesday. hump day!!! yay!! get happy. get geico. fifteen minutes could save you fifteen percent or more. missing workout
i'll worry about the economy more than a few times before they're grown. but it's for them, so i've found a way. who matters most to you says the most about you. at massmutual we're owned by our policyowners, and they matter most to us. ready to plan for your future? we'll help you get there. hey kevin...still eating chalk for heartburn? yeah... try new alka seltzer fruit chews. they work fast on heartburn and taste awesome. these are good. told ya! i'm feeling better already. [ male announcer...